Kimmo Huosionmaa
In Isaac Asimov's book, "the Foundation" is the fictional or hypothetical thing, known as "psychohistory" This thing s actually the way to predict the behave of billions of humans by using similar mathematical formulas, what are used to calculate the movements of the giant gas masses. The idea of psychohistory would be that those computers would collect all data, about what has been happened in history, and then use that data to predict the future. In those predictions is used similar software what is used in astronomy and meteorology for predict the large mass of gas.
Mathematical formulas, what is used in this action would be given the predictions with the large mass of humans. The reason for that is the single individual would have too many transformers, and that makes single persons or individuals very hard to predict. When we are thinking of clouds, we cannot predict the place of single waterdrop, but meteorological computer programs can predict quite well the place of the cloud. What bigger is the gas mass, the sharper is the result, what calculations would give about the prediction of the gas mass.
The idea is similar than in the rivers. We have hard to predict the place of the individual water molecule, but the prediction of the water line, what goes in the river is quite easy. Same way is easy to predict the route of water if the dam would collapse. When we are transferring this thing to sociology, we must think the ants. It's very hard to know, what single individual Ant would do next, but when we see the Ant group, what is looking for food for their group, we can predict quite good, how those bugs would act.
This is the idea of psychohistory. Individual human prediction is hard to predict, but the large groups of humans can predict quite easy because controlling large groups is very hard. When large groups of people would be released the stopping and controlling those groups is hard. But the predictions about their behavior or direction, where that group is going is very easy. And this thing has caused the thoughts, that there are plans to make that kind of experiments.
Here we must say, that this kind of systems would give sharper predictions for the long time period than the short period. Here we are talking about the thing, that the common prediction can be sharp, but then that thing disappears in the jungle of single cases. This thing is like a highway. We don't know every turn of the road, but we know where the road is going. This is the thing in that kind of attempt to predict the future. Using computers make possible to collect and handle multiple variables, and compile them with together.
In Isaac Asimov's book, "the Foundation" is the fictional or hypothetical thing, known as "psychohistory" This thing s actually the way to predict the behave of billions of humans by using similar mathematical formulas, what are used to calculate the movements of the giant gas masses. The idea of psychohistory would be that those computers would collect all data, about what has been happened in history, and then use that data to predict the future. In those predictions is used similar software what is used in astronomy and meteorology for predict the large mass of gas.
Mathematical formulas, what is used in this action would be given the predictions with the large mass of humans. The reason for that is the single individual would have too many transformers, and that makes single persons or individuals very hard to predict. When we are thinking of clouds, we cannot predict the place of single waterdrop, but meteorological computer programs can predict quite well the place of the cloud. What bigger is the gas mass, the sharper is the result, what calculations would give about the prediction of the gas mass.
The idea is similar than in the rivers. We have hard to predict the place of the individual water molecule, but the prediction of the water line, what goes in the river is quite easy. Same way is easy to predict the route of water if the dam would collapse. When we are transferring this thing to sociology, we must think the ants. It's very hard to know, what single individual Ant would do next, but when we see the Ant group, what is looking for food for their group, we can predict quite good, how those bugs would act.
This is the idea of psychohistory. Individual human prediction is hard to predict, but the large groups of humans can predict quite easy because controlling large groups is very hard. When large groups of people would be released the stopping and controlling those groups is hard. But the predictions about their behavior or direction, where that group is going is very easy. And this thing has caused the thoughts, that there are plans to make that kind of experiments.
Here we must say, that this kind of systems would give sharper predictions for the long time period than the short period. Here we are talking about the thing, that the common prediction can be sharp, but then that thing disappears in the jungle of single cases. This thing is like a highway. We don't know every turn of the road, but we know where the road is going. This is the thing in that kind of attempt to predict the future. Using computers make possible to collect and handle multiple variables, and compile them with together.
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